GP-Led Secondaries Settle at ~50% of Market Volume; LP Pricing Holds Steady Despite Volatility

GP-Led Secondaries: The 50% Equilibrium Despite persistent industry commentary suggesting the secondary market has become dominated by GP-led continuation vehicles, Hamilton Lane's 2026 Market Overview provides a data-driven correction: GP-led transactions have held steady at approximately 50% of total secondary volume for multiple consecutive years. LP-led deal flow has grown in parallel, indicating a healthy and balanced market rather than a structural shift toward one transaction type. Hamilton Lane characterizes current market conditions as a buyer's market, noting that "the supply of opportunities far outstrips the capital chasing them," leading to disciplined pricing and strong outcomes across both LP-led and GP-led transactions. GP-Led Deal Quality: Setting the Record Straight A persistent misconception frames GP-led continuation vehicles as vehicles for troubled or zombie assets. Hamilton Lane's data challenges this directly: Average MOIC on assets transferred into GP-led continuation vehicles: over 4x GP carry roll-in rate: nearly 100% on average — GPs are keeping their skin in the game These are high-performing assets that GPs want to hold longer, not distressed positions being warehoused LP Portfolio Pricing — Segmented by Fund Age Hamilton Lane's breakdown of LP-led secondary pricing by portfolio vintage reveals a nuanced picture. For mature portfolios aged 4-6 years, pricing as a percentage of reported NAV has remained essentially flat for three consecutive years — suggesting the market has reached a pricing equilibrium for core LP deals. For tail-end portfolios (7+ years), pricing has risen modestly, driven by demand from evergreen vehicles willing to pay tighter discounts for near-term distribution potential. "The market doesn't seem too bullish or bearish [on mature portfolios]." — Hamilton Lane 2026 Market Overview Context: Record $226B 2025 Volume Sets 2026 Baseline Evercore's year-end report confirmed that global secondary market volume reached a record $226 billion in 2025, smashing prior-year predictions. This record provides a high baseline for 2026 activity, with market participants expecting continued strong deal flow driven by the LP liquidity backlog and the growing pipeline of GP-led transactions among technology and AI-focused PE portfolios. Why This Matters for Private Markets For LPs evaluating secondary sales, the data suggests pricing remains rational and relatively predictable by vintage — a favorable environment to transact. For GP-led deal participants, the high average MOIC data point and near-universal GP carry roll-in is a positive signal on deal quality. The key risk to watch is the behavior of evergreen vehicles at the tail-end of fund cycles: Hamilton Lane explicitly warns that the willingness of some evergreens to accept larger discounts today in exchange for near-term asset access may create valuation mismatches that surface later for their own investors.