LP-Led Secondary Pricing Holds Steady in 2025 Despite Market Volatility; 2026 Demand Intensifies

LP-Led Secondary Pricing Remains Resilient Through Macro Volatility Despite significant market dislocation events in 2025 — including the "Liberation Day" tariff shock — average pricing in the LP-led secondary market held remarkably steady, according to data from Campbell Lutyens and Commonfund's private equity research team. The resilience of secondary pricing reflects both the maturation of the market and the depth of institutional buyer capital competing for quality assets. Pricing Benchmarks by Asset Class Buyout LP interests: Continued to command the highest prices, typically pricing in the mid-to-high 90s as a percentage of NAV, with discounts in the mid-single digits for top-tier managers Credit secondaries: Have migrated toward buyout pricing levels, reflecting strong credit performance and predictable cash flows Venture and growth LP interests: More volatile; discounts range widely from 10% to 70%+ depending on vintage, underlying company quality, and sponsor valuation methodology Infrastructure secondaries: Command premium pricing; real estate and energy secondaries tend to price at steeper discounts Aggregate market average: Held steady around high 80s/low 90s as a percentage of NAV across all secondary asset classes Key Pricing Determinants Commonfund research highlights that the single most important pricing driver is the quality of underlying portfolio companies. Secondary buyers conducting bottom-up analysis focus on operating metrics and growth trajectories of individual holdings — not just the fund-level NAV. Sponsor valuation methodology also plays a critical role: the same company held by two different GPs can carry materially different marks, creating arbitrage opportunities for sophisticated secondary buyers. "The market includes everything from high quality, undervalued LP-led buyout secondaries which trade at a premium, to lower quality, overvalued interests which could exhibit steep 70%+ discounts." 2026 Demand Outlook With over $600 billion in dry powder sitting in global PE funds and distributions to LPs remaining historically low, institutional investors face growing pressure to rebalance portfolios and meet liquidity needs through secondary sales. This supply-demand dynamic is expected to sustain or modestly compress discounts on quality assets through 2026, while lower-quality and illiquid positions may continue to trade at wider spreads. Why This Matters for Private Markets Stable LP-led pricing despite macro volatility is a constructive signal for the secondaries market's maturity as an asset class. For LP sellers, it means quality assets continue to command fair value — reducing the liquidity penalty for portfolio rebalancing. For buyers, the pricing environment rewards rigorous bottom-up diligence over indiscriminate bulk bids. As 2026 volume is forecast to set new records, pricing discipline will increasingly separate sophisticated secondaries platforms from commodity buyers.